What tax-loss sale opportunities may emerge over the course of a long-term holding period?

Tax-managed portfolio strategies rely on two major elements to help offset your tax burden: tax-loss harvesting and tax deferral. In this piece, we take a look at tax-loss harvesting opportunities.

First off, some definitions: Tax-loss harvesting involves selling a security at a loss and reinvesting the proceeds. While no investor attempts to lose capital, when picking a basket of securities there inevitably will be winners and losers. Realized losses create a tax credit for the year, which can be used to offset gains or be carried forward until needed.

A major advantage of a TaxM™ Separately Managed Account, or SMA, over an ETF (for instance) is the ability to pass through the losses of individual securities in the basket—even when the overall basket is up a lot. In any given year, a plethora of securities will have negative returns, which can make it attractive to harvest losses.

Year-end performance, however, can mask profound fluctuations throughout the year—something that was particularly notable in 2020. TaxM™ strategies look to capture intra-year drawdowns by trading at a two-week frequency.

Based on this methodology, we thought it would be useful to examine historical market performance and its impacts on harvesting opportunities. Among other observations, we wanted to know the maximum amount of realized losses an investor could have expected to harvest, assuming they sold “perfectly” at the trough.

Employing a hypothetical backtested portfolio based on the S&P 500*, we ran multiple return series starting in successive years (2001, 2002 and so on), all of which concluded in 2020. Across all the scenarios, the most significant realized capital loss opportunity set occurred in the first year after the account opening, with a median portfolio capital loss of around -15%. Overall, the portfolio’s loss capture in the 10th to 90th percentile range (capturing most likely outcomes) was roughly -6% to -32%.

Median Capital Loss Opportunity Set

Range 90th-10th percentile

Median Capital Loss Opportunity Set

Source: Neuberger Berman. Model portfolio based on individual S&P 500 stock performance. Maximum capital losses shown as a percentage of initial portfolio net asset value. Assumes the portfolio was able capture the most significant drawdown for each stock, if available in a given year because of a price decline below the purchase price. Portfolio stock weightings were updated at each year-end without reflecting realized gains so as to maintain allocations consistent with the index. See Additional Disclosures, including Additional Hypothetical Backtested performance disclosures, at the end of this material.

Clearly, the market environment in a particular year will affect the losses that can be generated, so we also wanted to highlight those impacts as well. Starting a hypothetical portfolio in every year beginning in 2001*, we found that maximum capital losses over the 20-year period were, perhaps not surprisingly, in portfolios with a starting point of 2008.

Opportunity Set By Vintage

Median Capital Loss Opportunity Set

Source: Neuberger Berman. Model portfolio based on individual S&P 500 stock performance. Maximum capital losses shown as a percentage of initial portfolio net asset value. Assumes the portfolio was able capture the most significant drawdown for each stock, if available in a given year because of a price decline below the purchase price. Portfolio stock weightings were updated at each year-end without reflecting realized gains so as to maintain allocations consistent with the index. See Additional Disclosures, including Additional Hypothetical Backtested performance disclosures, at the end of this material.

To summarize, the first year of hypothetical returns provided the most attractive opportunities to loss harvest; over the full 20-year period, first year losses that could be harvested were around 15% to 20% of portfolio assets, depending on the date of inception.

Obviously, long investors generally prefer not to suffer losses. However, over the course of a portfolio’s life, some drawdowns are inevitable. Understanding when and how those may occur can help improve opportunities to capitalize, where possible, in employing a systematic tax-harvesting approach.