In this paper, we share our proposal on how to gain Bitcoin exposure in what we view as a more risk-efficient, hedged format that seeks to benefit from one of its most notable qualities—its volatility.

The high level of Bitcoin realized volatility is reflected in even higher levels of implied volatility priced into Bitcoin options: market participants looking to hedge their exposure to Bitcoin have evidently been willing to pay a high premium to do so.

Using the average implied volatility since Bitcoin options went live in 2020, the average monthly yield on an at-the-money Bitcoin put option has been approximately 9%, or well over 100% annualized.

Ultimately, we see three higher probability scenarios for Bitcoin in the coming years. One, Bitcoin continues its meteoric rise and remains extremely volatile. Two, Bitcoin’s price suffers a collapse, driving volatility to new extremes. Three, Bitcoin’s growth rate slows and volatility declines (but remains attractive). In all cases, we believe utilizing option strategies may provide advantages to or complement a Buy & Hold Bitcoin strategy.

Fat Tails and High Fear Level

Bitcoin and S&P 500 two-month return distributions, November 2010 – June 2021 30-Day At-the-Money Implied Volatility

Bitcoin and S&P 500 two-month return distributions, November 2010 – June 2021 30-Day At-the-Money Implied Volatility

Bitcoin and S&P 500 30-day at-the-money option implied volatility, January 13 – June 30, 2021

Bitcoin and S&P 500 30-day at-the-money option implied volatility, January 13 – June 30, 2021

Estimated Bitcoin option implied volatility premium, January 13 – June 30, 2021

Estimated Bitcoin option implied volatility premium, January 13 – June 30, 2021

Source: Bloomberg LP. For illustrative purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes a prediction or projection of future events or future market behavior. Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed or any historical results. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.